A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
